https://aifaultline.com/authors/douglas-elmendorf/New papers by Douglas Elmendorf in the AI Fault Line guide, and news naming them. https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-3386-w35437/https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-3386-w35437/Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000This NBER paper lays out long-term US scenarios combining faster productivity growth, greater income inequality, job displacement and a higher capital share of income, and works through what each would mean for federal debt. It then weighs policy responses on growth, income distribution, support for laid-off workers and the taxation and ownership of capital, favouring policies that hold up across scenarios given how uncertain AI's effects are.