https://aifaultline.com/authors/katja-grace/New papers by Katja Grace in the AI Fault Line guide, and news naming them. https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1613-jair-1-19087/https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1613-jair-1-19087/Mon, 06 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000A survey of 2,778 researchers who published in top AI venues in October 2023 put a 50% chance on machines outperforming humans at every task by 2047, 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey. Full automation of all occupations was not expected to reach 50% probability until 2116, and most respondents expressed substantial uncertainty about long-term impacts. https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-4c8e761f28b6948f/https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-4c8e761f28b6948f/Wed, 03 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000 https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-1705-08807/https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-1705-08807/Wed, 24 May 2017 00:00:00 +0000A survey of machine learning researchers on when AI will surpass humans at specific activities, from translating languages to working as a surgeon. Respondents gave a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks within 45 years and automating all jobs within 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates sooner than North Americans.