https://aifaultline.com/authors/philip-trammell/New papers by Philip Trammell in the AI Fault Line guide, and news naming them. https://empiricrafting.substack.com/p/the-economics-of-a-global-ai-treatyhttps://empiricrafting.substack.com/p/the-economics-of-a-global-ai-treatyMon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000Stanford and Epoch AI economist Philip Trammell joins Justified Posteriors to discuss the economics of the AI 2040 "Plan A" scenario, in which the US and China agree to pace and monitor AI development. The conversation also covers recursive self-improvement. https://empiricrafting.substack.com/p/does-gdp-growth-mislead-us-abouthttps://empiricrafting.substack.com/p/does-gdp-growth-mislead-us-aboutMon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000The hosts discuss Philip Trammell and Chad Jones's paper "When GDP Misleads," which infers living standards from the value of a statistical life. They consider what it means for whether AI's effects will show up in GDP statistics. https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1146-annurev-economics-051624-061002/https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1146-annurev-economics-051624-061002/Sun, 01 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000This review places models of AI and economic growth in one framework, separating AI that raises output production, letting capital "self-replicate", from AI that raises knowledge production, letting it "self-improve". The first typically speeds growth and lowers the labor share, the second speeds growth further, and the authors conclude sufficiently advanced AI is likely to do both.