--- title: "The macroeconomics of automation · AI Fault Line" url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1007-s10887-026-09265-x/ description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change." --- [Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/) # The macroeconomics of automation Hideki Nakamura, Masakatsu Nakamura, Shota Moriwaki · Journal of Economic Growth · 24 Mar 2026 [Read original source](https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-026-09265-x) Open access Where this sits in the debate - [Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/) Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)). ## Abstract This paper develops a theory in which the degree of automation in the aggregate economy emerges endogenously as an equilibrium outcome and can be inferred from standard macroeconomic data. We define the degree of automation as the share of tasks performed by capital rather than labor and embed it in a task-based production framework with endogenous technology adoption. Aggregating task-level decisions generates a CES production function in which the economy-wide degree of automation emerges endogenously. This structure provides a transparent mapping from standard macroeconomic observables, such as the capital-labor ratio, output per worker, and the elasticity of substitution, into the degree of automation, allowing automation to be measured without relying on technology-specific indicators. Applying the framework to Japanese manufacturing industries, we show that automation increased through capital deepening even during periods of slow productivity growth. ## About this publication **Leading field journal.** A leading journal in economics or a neighbouring field (on the Tinbergen Institute’s A list or near the top of the RePEc ranking), or a top-rated computer-science venue. Placed by: Leading field journal. [How sources are ranked](https://aifaultline.com/about/#source-ranking). Published 2026 (7 months ago) Citations 0 (OpenAlex) 0 citations recorded by OpenAlex — too few 2026 papers in this collection for a fair comparison. [Chart: published 2026] ## More on this topic Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion. - [A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1145-3769433/) Communications of the ACM · 2026 - [Economic Growth Under Transformative AI](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1146-annurev-economics-051624-061002/) Annual Review of Economics · 2023 - [Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1016-j-respol-2024-105037/) Research Policy · 2024 - [A Framework for Economic Growth with Capital-Embodied Technical Change](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1257-aer-20221180/) American Economic Review · 2024 Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata. [How this site is built](https://aifaultline.com/about/).