--- title: "Economic Growth Under Transformative AI · AI Fault Line" url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1146-annurev-economics-051624-061002/ description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change." --- [Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/) # Economic Growth Under Transformative AI Philip Trammell, [Anton Korinek](https://aifaultline.com/authors/anton-korinek/) · Annual Review of Economics · 1 Oct 2023 [Read original source](https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051624-061002) Open access Where this sits in the debate - [Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/) · its finding supports the claim ([why studies differ](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/#why)) - [How fast will the impact arrive?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/pace/) Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)). ## Abstract Industrialized countries have long seen relatively stable growth in output per capita and a stable labor share.AI may be transformative, in the sense that it may break one or both of these stylized facts.This review outlines the ways this may happen by placing several strands of the literature on AI and growth within a common framework.We first evaluate models in which AI increases output production, for example via increases in capital's substitutability for labor or task automation, capturing the notion that AI will let capital "self-replicate".This typically speeds up growth and lowers the labor share.We then consider models in which AI increases knowledge production, capturing the notion that AI will let capital "self-improve", speeding growth further.Taken as a whole, the literature suggests that sufficiently advanced AI is likely to deliver both effects. ## About this publication **Leading field journal.** A leading journal in economics or a neighbouring field (on the Tinbergen Institute’s A list or near the top of the RePEc ranking), or a top-rated computer-science venue. Placed by: Leading field journal. [How sources are ranked](https://aifaultline.com/about/#source-ranking). Published 2023 (37 months ago) Citations 70 (OpenAlex) ## Citations in context [Chart: 70 citations, cohort median 397.5] 70 citations — 25th percentile among the 8 indexed papers from 2023 in this collection. Citation counts favor older papers; this compares only same-year papers here, not the whole literature. [Chart: published 2023] □ added to this collection in 2026. Anton Korinek signed the wemustactnow.ai letter · author affiliation matches seed institutions oxford university, stanford, stanford university, university of oxford, university of virginia — part of why this paper is in the collection. ## More on this topic Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion. - [A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1145-3769433/) Communications of the ACM · 2026 - [Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1016-j-respol-2024-105037/) Research Policy · 2024 - [A Framework for Economic Growth with Capital-Embodied Technical Change](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1257-aer-20221180/) American Economic Review · 2024 - [The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-5d84297ca034e372/) Goldman Sachs · 2023 Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata. [How this site is built](https://aifaultline.com/about/).