--- title: "Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective · AI Fault Line" url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1257-pandp-20261035/ description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change." --- [Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/) # Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective Francesco Filippucci, Péter Gál, Matthias Schief · AEA Papers and Proceedings · 1 May 2026 [Read original source](https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20261035) Open access Where this sits in the debate - [Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/) · its finding: it depends ([why studies differ](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/#why)) Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)). ## Abstract Artificial Intelligence delivers large productivity gains in specific tasks, but its impact on aggregate productivity remains debated. This paper discusses drivers of micro-level AI gains and their aggregation, arguing that AI could contribute between 0.3-0.9 percentage points to annual TFP growth over the next decade. However, the implied productivity gains also vary strongly between sectors, likely affecting the sectoral composition of the economy. Accounting for such structural change, sectoral differences in AI-driven productivity growth can diminish aggregate productivity gains through a Baumol effect, especially if elasticities of substitution in consumption across sectors are low and factor reallocation is limited. ## About this publication **Ranked journal.** A peer-reviewed journal in the RePEc ranking of economics journals, below the leading ones. Placed by: RePEc journal ranking. [How sources are ranked](https://aifaultline.com/about/#source-ranking). Published 2026 (6 months ago) Citations 3 (OpenAlex) ## Citations in context [Chart: 3 citations, cohort median 0] 3 citations — 97th percentile among the 188 indexed papers from 2026 in this collection. Citation counts favor older papers; this compares only same-year papers here, not the whole literature. [Chart: published 2026] ## More on this topic Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion. - [Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1287-orsc-2025-21838/) Organization Science · 2026 - [Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-2139-ssrn-4573321/) SSRN · 2023 - [Generative AI at Work](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1093-qje-qjae044/) The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 - [The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-2302-06590/) arXiv · 2023 Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata. [How this site is built](https://aifaultline.com/about/).