---
title: "The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel · AI Fault Line"
url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-3ae9ea7febbaafc9/
description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change."
---

[Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/)

# The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel

Alex Blumenfeld, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian, Andreas Schaab · NBER Working Papers · September 2026

[Read original source](https://www.nber.org/papers/w35793)

Where this sits in the debate

- [Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)).

## Key takeaway [AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)

This NBER paper sizes AI's macroeconomic effect through its impact on software engineering productivity, using firms' stock-return sensitivity to AI news to build a forward-looking, real-time measure.

## Abstract

We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure that is available in real time. We estimate the sensitivity of each firms stock return to an AI

## About this publication

**Working paper.** A working paper — circulated for discussion before formal peer review, the standard first outlet in economics.

Published

2026

Citations

Not recorded for this source

Citation counts come from OpenAlex; none are recorded for this source — absence of a count is not absence of citations.

[Chart: published 2026]

## More on this topic

Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion.

- [Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-2139-ssrn-4573321/) SSRN · 2023

- [Generative AI at Work](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1093-qje-qjae044/) The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025

- [The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-2302-06590/) arXiv · 2023

- [The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1257-mac-20180386/) American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · 2020

Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata.
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