--- title: "AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners · AI Fault Line" url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-3b53fbc4d191cd73/ description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change." --- [Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/) # AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners New York Fed Liberty Street Economics (institute research) · 8 Oct 2026 [Read original source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/) Open access Not peer reviewed Where this sits in the debate - [Will AI destroy more jobs than it creates?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/jobs/) · its finding goes against the claim ([why studies differ](https://aifaultline.com/debate/jobs/#why)) Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)). ## Key takeaway [AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/) Using the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, New York Fed economists find that US small businesses using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect higher employment and revenue over the next year, after controlling for firm and owner characteristics and location. ## Source excerpt There is little consensus on the effect of AI adoption on employment. Economy-wide measures of pay and headcount have moved little even as AI adoption has spread rapidly, yet narrower measures document declining hiring for workers at the start of their careers or in AI-exposed occupations . In this post, we revisit this topic for U.S. small businesses. We use data from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) to examine the twelve-month-forward employment and revenue expectations of AI users. We find that firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location. Revenue expectations are most optimistic for AI users that report facing operational challenges in utilizing technology. ## About this publication **Lab or institute research, not peer reviewed.** A report or blog post published by an AI lab or research institute on its own site. It has not been through independent peer review, and the publisher may have a stake in the findings. Published 2026 (recently) Citations Not recorded for this source Citation counts come from OpenAlex; none are recorded for this source — absence of a count is not absence of citations. [Chart: published 2026] ## More on this topic Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion. - [The Effects of Generative AI on High Skilled Work: Evidence from Three Field Experiments with Software Developers](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-2139-ssrn-4945566/) SSRN · 2024 - [GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-2303-10130/) arXiv · 2023 - [Experimental evidence on the productivity effects of generative artificial intelligence](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1126-science-adh2586/) Science · 2023 - [The simple macroeconomics of AI](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1093-epolic-eiae042/) Economic Policy · 2024 Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata. [How this site is built](https://aifaultline.com/about/).