--- title: "Transformative AI and demand bottlenecks · AI Fault Line" url: https://aifaultline.com/research/p/title-ec2a33ab22951f67/ description: "AI Fault Line is a neutral, evidence-cited field guide to why experts looking at the same developments disagree about AI's effect on productivity, jobs, inequality, regulation and the pace of change." --- [Research](https://aifaultline.com/research/) # Transformative AI and demand bottlenecks Bank for International Settlements (institute research) · 12 Oct 2026 [Read original source](https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1381-transformative-ai-and-demand-bottlenecks) Open access Not peer reviewed Where this sits in the debate - [Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/) · its finding: it depends ([why studies differ](https://aifaultline.com/debate/productivity/#why)) - [Will AI widen inequality?](https://aifaultline.com/debate/inequality/) Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model ([AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/)). ## Key takeaway [AI-written](https://aifaultline.com/about/) A BIS paper arguing that while transformative AI could speed growth through productivity and automation, automation at that scale would raise the investment share of output and could starve AI innovation of returns from a shrinking consumer market. ## Source excerpt Transformative AI promises to accelerate growth through productivity enhancement and automation. Yet automation on such a scale would raise the share of investment in output, potentially starving AI innovation of returns from a shrinking consumer market. ## About this publication **Lab or institute research, not peer reviewed.** A report or blog post published by an AI lab or research institute on its own site. It has not been through independent peer review, and the publisher may have a stake in the findings. Published 2026 (recently) Citations Not recorded for this source Citation counts come from OpenAlex; none are recorded for this source — absence of a count is not absence of citations. [Chart: published 2026] ## More on this topic Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion. - [Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-2139-ssrn-4573321/) SSRN · 2023 - [Generative AI at Work](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1093-qje-qjae044/) The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 - [The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-48550-arxiv-2302-06590/) arXiv · 2023 - [The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies](https://aifaultline.com/research/p/doi-10-1257-mac-20180386/) American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · 2020 Overview assembled automatically from collected metadata. [How this site is built](https://aifaultline.com/about/).