The numbers
What the published studies estimate on “Will AI widen inequality?”
12 numbers from 8 published papers, each taken from the source’s own words (its abstract, or a verbatim passage of a curated source) with the sentence it comes from. Hover or tap a point for the quote; every point links to its paper.
Who gains more from AI at work
Studies that measured AI’s effect on output separately for less and more experienced (or lower- and higher-performing) workers. When the less experienced gain more, the gap between workers narrows; when the better performers gain more, it widens. 3 studies, each number with its quote; settings differ.
Less experienced or lower performersMore experienced or higher performersGainLoss
Shares
Shares of jobs, tasks, workers or firms, as reported. Definitions differ between studies.
Other effects
Changes in employment, wages, adoption and other measures, as reported.
Read the source numbers
Each row retains its own definition, population and horizon. Rows are not a pooled estimate; a shared percentage unit does not make them comparable.
| Source | What it measures | Reported value | Source quotation |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Economic and Organizational Consequences of AI-Induced Workforce Displacement: A Mixed-Methods Investigation | Change in wages from AI Region and horizon not recorded | −26.7% | Displaced workers reported an average income reduction of 26.7% and employment transitions lasting 16.8 months. |
| Generative AI at Work | Issues resolved per hour, novice and low-skilled support agents Region and horizon not recorded | +34% | including a 34% improvement for novice and low-skilled workers but with minimal impact on experienced and highly skilled workers |
| Artificial Intelligence and Institutional Transformation across Regulatory Economic and Knowledge Systems | Share of global AI infrastructure capacity held by fewer than ten multinationals World | 78% | less than ten multinational companies account for almost 78% of AI infrastructures' capacity on the planet |
| The Jagged Global Economy: Frontier AI Unevenly Exposes National Economies | How much more exposed Europe and Central Asia are than Sub-Saharan Africa 141 countries | +50% | Europe and Central Asia are 50 percent more exposed than Sub-Saharan Africa |
| The Jagged Global Economy: Frontier AI Unevenly Exposes National Economies | Countries where women are more exposed to frontier AI than men 141 countries | 91% | women are more exposed than men in 91 percent of countries |
| The Privilege of Exposure: Caste and Generative AI in India's Graduate Labour Market | AI exposure of Scheduled Caste and Tribe graduates relative to upper-caste graduates India | −0.3 SD (range −0.37 to −0.24) | graduates from the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes are 0.24--0.37 standard deviations less exposed than upper-caste graduates |
| The Privilege of Exposure: Caste and Generative AI in India's Graduate Labour Market | Wage premium for AI exposure (upper bound) India | +20% | exposure commands a wage premium of up to 20 per cent |
| Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality | Task scores of consultants below average performance Region and horizon not recorded | +43% | those below the average performance threshold increasing by 43% and those above increasing by 17% |
| Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality | Task scores of consultants above average performance Region and horizon not recorded | +17% | those below the average performance threshold increasing by 43% and those above increasing by 17% |
| The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance | Business performance of high-performing entrepreneurs with an AI assistant Kenya | +15% | high performers benefited by just over 15% from the AI assistant |
| The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance | Business performance of low-performing entrepreneurs with an AI assistant Kenya | −8% | low performers did about 8% worse |
| Tools of the trade: AI and the restructuring of the experience premium | Share of the widening experienced vs entry-level pay gap explained by occupational reallocation US | 61% | Occupational reallocation toward higher-paid jobs accounts for 61% of the widening |