A guide to AI & the economy

Understand what AI is changing.
In the economy.

A research guide to AI’s impact on jobs, productivity and inequality. Explore the studies, understand researchers’ perspectives, and see where the evidence is still unsettled.

The debate

Five questions

Researchers looking at the same developments reach very different answers. Each question has its own page: the short answer, why experts disagree, the numbers, who says what and what to read.

ProductivityWill AI actually boost productivity and growth?Published estimates of AI's yearly boost to productivity and growth run from under a tenth of a percentage point to several points, with some scenarios far higher.

15 agree7 it's complicated4 disagree26 of 400 coded

JobsWill AI destroy more jobs than it creates?Estimates of the share of jobs at high risk from automation range from about one in ten to nearly half, depending on whether whole jobs or single tasks are counted.

6 agree11 it's complicated9 disagree26 of 400 coded

InequalityWill AI widen inequality?Some studies find AI narrows gaps between workers in the same job, while others expect it to shift income from workers to the owners of capital.

23 agree3 it's complicated1 disagree27 of 400 coded

RegulationShould governments act on AI now?Proposals range from new taxes and safety rules to relying on existing institutions, and the published papers on this question are still few.

23 agree3 it's complicated0 disagree26 of 400 coded

PaceHow fast will the impact arrive?Expected dates for AI matching human ability range from the next few years to several decades away.

7 agree2 it's complicated7 disagree16 of 400 coded

Counts are researchers with a documented, cited position, out of everyone on the co-authorship map: a curated network, not a representative survey.

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