Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security
Ачба Любовь Викторовна, Dmitry Agafonov · National Security and Strategic Planning · 30 Oct 2026
Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
- Will AI destroy more jobs than it creates? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
- How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Key takeaway AI-written
This article compares forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, ILO and industry analysts of AI's contribution to GDP, productivity and investment from 2016 to 2026. Using scenario and sectoral analysis it reconstructs ranges for these effects and the risks they pose for economic security.
Abstract
The article examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on the trajectory of global economic growth, the structure of employment, and the resilience of the world economy in 2016–2026. Based on a comparison of forecasts by international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD, ILO) and industry analytics (McKinsey, PwC, IDC, Stanford HAI), and using macroeconomic modeling, scenario and sectoral analysis, the study reconstructs the ranges of the potential contribution of AI to GDP dynamics, productivity, and investment flows. The findings show that the positive effects of AI are accompanied by high macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbate cross country and intra industry inequality, provoke a structural transformation of the labor market, and create additional threats to economic security (cyber risks, concentration of capital and computing resources, technological and regulatory fragmentation). The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive integration of macroeconomic and sectoral assessments within a single time horizon, taking into account an “AI readiness” index, which makes it possible to quantitatively characterize the asymmetry in the distribution of benefits and risks across country groups and sectors. It is demonstrated that realizing the potential of AI as a general purpose technology requires coordinated policies by governments and businesses aimed at developing human capital, modernizing digital infrastructure, and shaping institutional mechanisms that minimize social and geoeconomic risks.
About this publication
Academic journal. Published in an academic journal — typically peer-reviewed before publication, though indexing alone doesn't guarantee review depth.
- Published
- 2026 (recently)
- Citations
- 0 (OpenAlex)
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