Macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence in G7 economies

Francesco Filippucci, Péter Gál, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief · OECD artificial intelligence papers · 26 Jun 2025

Where this sits in the debate

Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).

Key takeaway AI-written

Extending its micro-to-macro framework from the United States to the other G7 economies, this OECD paper estimates AI could add 0.4-1.3 percentage points a year to labour productivity growth in highly exposed economies such as the US and UK. Projected gains elsewhere in the G7 are up to 50% smaller because of sectoral composition and slower assumed adoption.

The paper in three steps AI-written

Written by an AI agent from the paper's abstract, which is the primary source and is quoted below.

The question

How do expected AI-driven productivity gains differ across the G7 economies?

The approach

Extends an earlier micro-to-macro framework from the United States to other G7 countries, harmonising firm adoption measures and updating future adoption paths across three scenarios.

The findings

Annual labour productivity growth from AI is estimated at 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points in high-exposure countries such as the US and UK; gains in several other G7 economies are up to 50% smaller due to sectoral mix and slower adoption.

How to read it: macro-projection. A model-based scenario, not a measurement — assumptions drive the range; compare against other projections.

Limitations and counterpoints AI-written

Results are scenario projections sensitive to adoption assumptions and to how micro-level gains are scaled up.

Abstract

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon in G7 economies. It builds on our previous work that introduced a micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates. This paper refines and extends the estimates from the United States to other G7 economies, in particular by harmonising current adoption rate measures among firms and updating future adoption path estimates. Across the three scenarios considered, the estimated range for annual aggregate labour productivity growth due to AI range between 0.4-1.3 percentage points in countries with high AI exposure – due to stronger specialisation in highly AI-exposed knowledge intensive services such as finance and ICT services – and more widespread adoption (e.g. United States and United Kingdom). In contrast, projected gains in several other G7 economies are up to 50% smaller, reflecting differences in sectoral composition and assumptions about the relative pace of AI adoption.

About this publication

Academic journal. Published in an academic journal — typically peer-reviewed before publication, though indexing alone doesn't guarantee review depth.

Published: 2025 (16 months ago)
Citations: 13 (OpenAlex)

13 citations recorded by OpenAlex — too few 2025 papers in this collection for a fair comparison.

□ added to this collection in 2026.

Cited elsewhere in this guide

State of the debate: Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?