The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets
Simon Galle, Linnea Lorentzen · Journal of International Economics · 1 Mar 2024
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Abstract
We quantify the joint impact of the China shock and automation of labor, across US commuting zones (CZs) in the period 2000–2007. To this end, we employ a multi-sector gravity model of trade with Roy-Fréchet worker heterogeneity across sectors, where labor input can be automated. Automation and increased import competition from China are both sector-specific; they lead to contractions in a sector’s labor demand and a decline in relative income for CZs more specialized in that sector, amplified by a voluntary reduction in hours worked and an increase in frictional unemployment. The estimated model fits well with the aggregate performance of manufacturing subsectors and with the variation across CZs in changes in average income, the hourly wage, hours worked, the employment rate and employment in manufacturing. By itself, the China shock has stronger distributional effects than automation, but its impact on aggregate gains is less than a third of automation’s impact.
About this publication
Leading field journal. A leading journal in economics or a neighbouring field (on the Tinbergen Institute’s A list or near the top of the RePEc ranking), or a top-rated computer-science venue.
Placed by: Tinbergen Institute A list. How sources are ranked.
- Published
- 2024 (32 months ago)
- Citations
- 9 (OpenAlex)
Citations in context
9 citations — 17th percentile among the 23 indexed papers from 2024 in this collection. Citation counts favor older papers; this compares only same-year papers here, not the whole literature.
□ added to this collection in 2026.
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