Make or buy AI? Evidence on AI sourcing decisions and workforce outcomes
Oscar Stålnacke, Ebrahim Bazrafshan, Amin Sofla · Applied Economics Letters · 14 Oct 2026
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Abstract
We examine how firms acquire artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and how their AI sourcing decisions relate to workforce outcomes. Using Swedish enterprise surveys from 2019 and 2021 linked to financial statements and employer–employee data, we directly observe whether firms adopt AI and whether they outsource AI-related activities. AI adoption is concentrated among larger firms. Among adopters, pre-existing cost pressure is associated with outsourcing. Relative to non-adopters, both in-house adopters and outsourcers have higher subsequent employment and persistently higher shares of university-educated and computer-science (CS)-educated workers, with no further change in workforce composition in the year after adoption. Workforce outcomes are statistically indistinguishable between in-house adopters and outsourcers.
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