Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective

Francesco Filippucci, Péter Gál, Matthias Schief · AEA Papers and Proceedings · 1 May 2026

Where this sits in the debate

Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence delivers large productivity gains in specific tasks, but its impact on aggregate productivity remains debated. This paper discusses drivers of micro-level AI gains and their aggregation, arguing that AI could contribute between 0.3-0.9 percentage points to annual TFP growth over the next decade. However, the implied productivity gains also vary strongly between sectors, likely affecting the sectoral composition of the economy. Accounting for such structural change, sectoral differences in AI-driven productivity growth can diminish aggregate productivity gains through a Baumol effect, especially if elasticities of substitution in consumption across sectors are low and factor reallocation is limited.

About this publication

Ranked journal. A peer-reviewed journal in the RePEc ranking of economics journals, below the leading ones.

Placed by: RePEc journal ranking. How sources are ranked.

Published: 2026 (6 months ago)
Citations: 3 (OpenAlex)

Citations in context

3 citations — 97th percentile among the 188 indexed papers from 2026 in this collection. Citation counts favor older papers; this compares only same-year papers here, not the whole literature.

Aggregate Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence: A Sectoral Perspective

Abstract

About this publication

Citations in context

More on this topic