Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation

Huben Liu, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt, Bryan Seegmiller · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · 1 Sep 2025

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Will AI destroy more jobs than it creates?

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Abstract

ABSTRACT: We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures with census data on occupation employment, we show that technological progress over the twentieth century has led to economically meaningful shifts in labor demand across occupations: It has consistently increased demand for occupations with higher education requirements, occupations that pay higher wages, and occupations with a greater fraction of female workers. Using these insights and a calibrated model, we then explore different scenarios for how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are likely to affect employment trends in the medium run. The model predicts a reversal of past trends, with AI favoring occupations that are lower-educated, lower-paid, and more male-dominated.

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Leading field journal. A leading journal in economics or a neighbouring field (on the Tinbergen Institute’s A list or near the top of the RePEc ranking), or a top-rated computer-science venue.

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Published: 2025 (14 months ago)
Citations: 0 (OpenAlex)

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□ added to this collection in 2026.

Bryan Seegmiller signed the wemustactnow.ai letter — part of why this paper is in the collection.

Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation

Abstract

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