Governing the Compute Frontier: Institutional Responses to Capital Concentration, Regulatory Divergence, and Labor Adjustment in the Global Expansion of Artificial Intelligence
Sanyukta Deb · Knowledge Commons (Lakehead University) · 14 Oct 2026
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Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI destroy more jobs than it creates? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
- Should governments act on AI now? · its finding supports the claim (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Abstract
This study examines the global artificial intelligence market through the lens of innovation and technology governance, asking how institutions are responding to rapid capital concentration, regulatory divergence, and early labor-market adjustment. It combines the market valuation and forecast published by Next Move Strategy Consulting, which places the market at USD 629.97 billion in 2026 and projects USD 3,796.05 billion by 2035 (21.3% CAGR), with company disclosures, government instruments, central bank research, and reporting from approved news organizations published between October 2025 and October 2026. The analysis finds that growth rests on a highly concentrated infrastructure layer, with four hyperscalers projected to spend more than USD 700 billion on capital equipment in 2026. It also finds that governance is fragmenting between delay and simplification in the European Union, preemption of state law in the United States, and voluntary coordination in India, and that early labor evidence points to concentrated, modest effects on young workers rather than broad displacement. The study argues that realization of the forecast depends less on model capability than on grid capacity, regulatory predictability, and the institutional ability to manage distributional effects. It closes with implications for policy and practice and a statement of the evidence's limits.
About this publication
Academic journal. Published in an academic journal — typically peer-reviewed before publication, though indexing alone doesn't guarantee review depth.
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- 2026 (recently)
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