Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence

Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Matthias Schief · OECD artificial intelligence papers · 22 Nov 2024

Where this sits in the debate

Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).

Key takeaway AI-written

This OECD paper combines micro-level performance gains, exposure of activities to AI and expected adoption rates in a multi-sector general-equilibrium model with input-output links. It estimates AI will add 0.25-0.6 percentage points to annual aggregate TFP growth (0.4-0.9 points for labour productivity) over ten years.

The paper in three steps AI-written

Written by an AI agent from the paper's abstract, which is the primary source and is quoted below.

The question

How large are the likely macroeconomic productivity gains from AI over a 10-year horizon?

The approach

A micro-to-macro framework combining micro-level performance gains, exposure of activities to AI and projected adoption rates, aggregated with a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output links.

The findings

Annual aggregate TFP growth due to AI is estimated at 0.25 to 0.6 percentage points, or 0.4 to 0.9 points for labour productivity, with several policy levers discussed.

How to read it: macro-projection. A model-based scenario, not a measurement — assumptions drive the range; compare against other projections.

Limitations and counterpoints AI-written

Projections depend on assumed adoption paths and on transferring micro-level estimates to the whole economy.

Abstract

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, relying on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI's growth-enhancing effects.

About this publication

Academic journal. Published in an academic journal — typically peer-reviewed before publication, though indexing alone doesn't guarantee review depth.

Published: 2024 (23 months ago)
Citations: 50 (OpenAlex)

50 citations recorded by OpenAlex — too few 2024 papers in this collection for a fair comparison.

□ added to this collection in 2026.

Cited elsewhere in this guide

State of the debate: Will AI actually boost productivity and growth?