Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI

Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck, Kevin A. Bryan, Basil Halperin, Todd R. Jones, Connacher Murphy · NBER Working Paper 35046 · 15 Mar 2026

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Where this sits in the debate

Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
Will AI destroy more jobs than it creates? · its finding supports the claim (why studies differ)
How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).

Key takeaway AI-written

The authors survey five groups (academic economists, AI company staff, AI policy researchers, top forecasters and the public) on how AI will affect the US economy. The median respondent in each group expects annual GDP growth of 2.5% and small declines in labor force participation; under a rapid-progress scenario, experts expect growth near 4% and participation falling to 55% by 2050, about half of it attributed to AI.

The paper in three steps AI-written

Written by an AI agent from the paper's abstract, which is the primary source and is quoted below.

The question

What do economists, AI company staff, AI policy researchers, accurate forecasters and the public expect AI to do to US GDP growth and labor force participation?

The approach

The authors elicit forecasts from five groups and compare their medians, both unconditionally and conditional on a rapid AI progress scenario in which AI surpasses humans on many cognitive and physical tasks.

The findings

Each group's median expects 2.5% annual GDP growth, above the 2.0% medium-run and 1.7% long-run baselines, with small participation declines. Under rapid progress, experts expect about 4% growth and participation falling from 62% to 55% by 2050, roughly half of that decline attributed to AI.

How to read it: survey. Self-reported data from firms or individuals — good for perceptions and adoption; answers can differ from behavior.

Limitations and counterpoints AI-written

These are elicited beliefs, not measured outcomes; the abstract does not report sample sizes or how respondents were recruited.

Source excerpt

We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial advances in AI capabilities by 2030, small declines in labor force participation consistent with demographic shifts, and an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5%, which exceeds both the typical medium-run (2.0%) and long-run (1.7%) baseline forecasts from government agencies and privatesector forecasters. Conditional on a “rapid” AI progress scenario, in which AI systems surpass human performance on many cognitive and physical tasks, experts forecast substantial, though not historically unprecedented, economic shifts: annualized GDP growth rising to around 4% and the labor force participation rate falling from its current level of 62% to 55% by 2050, with roughly half of that decline—equivalent to around 10 million lost jobs—attributable to AI.

About this publication

Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.

Published: 2026 (7 months ago)
Citations: Not recorded for this source