The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth
Alex Arnon · Penn Wharton Budget Model · 8 Sep 2025
Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
- How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Source excerpt
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI's boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts.
About this publication
Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.
- Published
- 2025 (13 months ago)
- Citations
- Not recorded for this source
□ added to this collection in 2026.
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