Machines of Mind: The Case for an AI-Powered Productivity Boom

Martin Neil Baily, Erik Brynjolfsson, Anton Korinek · Brookings Institution · 10 May 2023

Where this sits in the debate

Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding supports the claim (why studies differ)
How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding supports the claim (why studies differ)

Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).

Key takeaway AI-written

The authors argue that generative AI could drive a productivity boom and illustrate it with projections: one where AI raises the level of productivity and output by an additional 18% over ten years, and another that adds a one-percentage-point boost to the growth rate from AI-triggered innovation.

The paper in three steps AI-written

Written by an AI agent from the paper's abstract, which is the primary source and is quoted below.

The question

How much could generative AI raise productivity and output over the next decade?

The approach

The authors compare illustrative projections against a baseline: a Level scenario in which generative AI raises productivity and output by an extra 18% over ten years, and a Level+Growth scenario that adds a one percentage point boost to the growth rate from additional innovation.

The findings

In the Level scenario output is 18% higher after ten years, after which growth returns to its baseline rate. The Level+Growth scenario additionally raises the growth rate by one percentage point through innovation triggered by generative AI.

How to read it: macro-projection. A model-based scenario, not a measurement — assumptions drive the range; compare against other projections.

Limitations and counterpoints AI-written

The figures are illustrative projections built on assumed channels rather than measured effects, so the outcome depends on whether those assumptions hold.

Source excerpt

The projection labeled "Level" assumes that generative AI raises the level of productivity and output by an additional 18% over ten years, as suggested by the illustrative numbers we discussed for the first channel. After ten years, growth reverts to the baseline rate. The third projection labeled "Level+Growth" additionally includes a one percentage point boost in the rate of growth over the baseline rate, resulting from the additional innovation triggered by generative AI.

About this publication

Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.

Published: 2023 (42 months ago)
Citations: Not recorded for this source

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