Task Substitution and Uplift
METR (AI lab research) · 8 May 2026
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- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
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Source excerpt
Summary: We describe three different definitions of the productivity impact of AI (AKA uplift), and show there’s reason to expect: \[\text{uplift on old tasks} \leq \text{uplift in value} \leq \text{uplift on new tasks}\] Three Measures of Uplift One complication in measuring AI’s effect on productivity is that it has different effects on different tasks, and this causes people to change how they allocate their time between tasks. This makes it more difficult to talk about the effect of AI on overall productivity. We use “old tasks” to mean the set of tasks you’d do in a typical day before AI is available – your average workday in 2021, say. “New tasks” means the set of tasks you’d do in a typical day after AI is available. Not all new tasks necessarily use AI; they’re just the tasks you choose knowing AI is an option. We have found it important to distinguish between three measures of AI’s uplift: Uplift on old tasks: The factor by which pre-AI time exceeds post-AI time to complete the old tasks. Uplift on new tasks: The factor by which pre-AI time exceeds post-AI time to complete the new tasks. Uplift in value: The factor by which post-AI value exceeds pre-AI value, allowing for reshuffling of tasks between the pre-AI and post-AI cases. In some cases value has a natural definition; in others, it can be operationalized using related definitions discussed more in the accompanying note. This note discusses the distinction and its implications for interpreting AI productivity estimates. We also have an accompanying short note with more mathematical details. Ranking the Three Types of Uplift Under some simplifying assumptions, the following inequalities hold: \[\text{uplift on old tasks} \leq \text{uplift in value} \leq \text{uplift on new tasks}\] These inequalities correspond to classic inequalities in the economic theory of price indices, which estimate the effects on welfare of changes in prices based on how consumers change their expenditure in response to the pri
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Lab or institute research, not peer reviewed. A report or blog post published by an AI lab or research institute on its own site. It has not been through independent peer review, and the publisher may have a stake in the findings.
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- 2026 (5 months ago)
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