What Investment Data Implies about the AI Transition
Jessica Wachter, Jonathan Wachter · NBER Working Papers · June 2026
Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
- How fast will the impact arrive?
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Abstract
The five largest U.S. technology firms spent $380 billion on capital expenditure in 2025 and are forecast to spend roughly double that in 2026. These firms risk bankruptcy unless expected profits grow commensurately. We embed this observation in a two-sector open-economy model with rare productivity
About this publication
Working paper. A working paper — circulated for discussion before formal peer review, the standard first outlet in economics.
- Published
- 2026
- Citations
- Not recorded for this source
Citation counts come from OpenAlex; none are recorded for this source — absence of a count is not absence of citations.
Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion.
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American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · 2020
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