2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
Katja Grace, Zach Stein-Perlman, Benjamin Weinstein-Raun, John Salvatier · AI Impacts · 3 Aug 2022
Where this sits in the debate
- How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Source excerpt
The aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance of HLMI was 37 years, i.e. 2059 (not including data from questions about the conceptually similar Full Automation of Labor, which in 2016 received much later estimates). This timeline has become about eight years shorter in the six years since 2016, when the aggregate prediction put 50% probability at 2061, i.e. 45 years out.
About this publication
Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.
- Published
- 2022 (51 months ago)
- Citations
- Not recorded for this source
□ added to this collection in 2026.
Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion.
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