Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, Wave 6: Economic Effects of AI
Connacher Murphy, Josh Rosenberg, Jordan Canedy, Zach Jacobs, Nadja Flechner, Rhiannon Britt, Alexa Pan · Forecasting Research Institute, LEAP Report 6 · 15 Apr 2026
Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
- How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding: it depends (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Source excerpt
When not told to condition on a progress scenario, experts, superforecasters, and the public broadly agree on near-term GDP growth, with median forecasts of 2.7%, 2.5%, and 2.5% annualized real GDP growth for 2025–2030, respectively—broadly in line with recent historical rates. Scenario assumptions make a substantial difference, however. Under Rapid Progress, the median expert expects 4.0% annualized growth to 2030 and 5.0% to 2050, while under Slow Progress those figures fall to 2.3% and 2.5%.
About this publication
Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.
- Published
- 2026 (6 months ago)
- Citations
- Not recorded for this source
Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion.
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Journal of Computer Science and Technology Studies · 2026
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