Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow
Tyler Cowen · Marginal Revolution (blog) · 1 Feb 2025
Where this sits in the debate
- Will AI actually boost productivity and growth? · its finding supports the claim (why studies differ)
- How fast will the impact arrive? · its finding goes against the claim (why studies differ)
Direction of the finding as read from the abstract by an AI model (AI-written).
Key takeaway AI-written
Tyler Cowen explains why he expects AI take-off to be relatively slow, restating his estimate that AI will add about half a percentage point a year to economic growth.
Source excerpt
I've gone on record as suggesting that AI will boost economic growth rates by half a percentage point a year.
About this publication
Industry report. An industry or consultancy report — produced outside academic peer review.
- Published
- 2025 (21 months ago)
- Citations
- Not recorded for this source
□ added to this collection in 2026.
Tyler Cowen signed the wemustactnow.ai letter — part of why this paper is in the collection.
Related by theme, not necessarily by method or conclusion.
- A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI
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Goldman Sachs · 2023 - Macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence in G7 economies
OECD · 2025 - Generative AI in Business Analytics: Opportunities and Risks for National Economic Growth
Journal of Computer Science and Technology Studies · 2026
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